Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Jordan to Create Militarized Buffer/ No Fly Zone in Syria- Order out of Chaos

The plan as laid out by Brookings included this option: Brookings: Deconstructing Syria-Order from Chaos

"It could be undertaken in the safest zones first—perhaps in Kurdish areas, for example, and then near the Jordanian border in conjunction with Jordanian forces.


The latest from Financial Times- 

Jordan is preparing to set up a security zone in southern Syria to prevent a jihadi victory in the area, carving out the first humanitarian “buffer zone” for rebels and refugees in four years of civil war.

The main aim of the operation will be to create a safe area on Jordan’s border, stretching across the southern Syrian provinces of Deraa and Suwayda, and including the city of Deraa, where the Syrian uprising began in 2011, according to people familiar with the plans.

Though the idea of creating a buffer area has long been circulating among Syria’s neighbours, until now it has received little serious attention.

But Jordan’s hand is being forced by the shifting military situation inside Syria, and concerns that the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, the group known as Isis, could grab territory on its border and threaten the Hashemite state. Jordan has also been involved in the US training of non-jihadi rebels, which it and western governments see as the only moderate alternative to the jihadis.
 Assad regime forces are currently under pressure in the city of Deraa, and are likely to withdraw in the coming days before the narrow corridor they control, which currently connects the city to Damascus, is cut off.
The fall of the historic city of Palmyra to Isis has also led to a significant rethinking of the anti-Isis coalition’s plans in regard to Syria. Jihadis are now uncomfortably close to the Jordanian border and are using the area as a crossing point into Iraq. The group has been manoeuvring large military convoys through the area, according to intelligence officials.

People familiar with the situation say that Jordan is also considering a militarised zone that will segregate the buffer area from Syrian regime forces to the North. It will be manned by existing fighters in the anti-Assad rebel southern brigades, reinforced with a brigade of troops currently being trained in Jordan. The Jordanian military — one of the most capable in the Middle East — will provide support.
The plans are backed by key members of the international coalition against Isis, who are expected to provide behind-the-lines military support and advice but it remains unclear whether Washington will sanction the move: many in the Obama administration are hesitant about backing a ground operation in Syria.

Although an official no-fly zone is unlikely to be established in support of the Jordanian operation, warnings could be sent to the Assad regime that any attempt to strike at the area by air would be met with a response.
So, in fact, this will be a NO FLY ZONE- unofficialy
It is also unclear how much co-ordination has so far taken place to prepare southern Syria’s existing brigades of rebel fighters for the operation: senior figures in the southern brigades contacted by the FT said they were unaware of the plans. While Jordanian intervention is likely to be welcomed in Deraa, there is also a question over whether forces backed by Amman will be so readily supported in neighbouring Suwayda province, where Druze tribes have an uneasy relationship with anti-Assad forces.

Also:


Brookings: Deconstructing Syria-Order from Chaos

de·con·struct/ˌdēkənˈstrəkt/
verb
  1. analyze (a text or a linguistic or conceptual system) by deconstruction, typically in order to expose its hidden internal assumptions and contradictions and subvert its apparent significance or unity. 
Deconstruct- Also to take or tear apart- as opposed to construct which is to build-

Therefore: Brookings is putting forth the method of destroying Syria. It's very 'humanitarian' of course (completely facetious) The one lone difference is the US is going to publicly acknowledge this plan as "the plan for Syria"

Highlighting interesting bits:

While the Obama administration’s strategy for Iraq requires substantial upgrading in light of recent Islamic State (or ISIL) successes in and around Ramadi in particular, the plan for Syria is in much worse shape. The peace process is dead. (Was there ever a real peace process? ) So are a quarter million Syrians, with another 12 million displaced. Joint Chiefs Chairman General Martin Dempsey has just testified to Congress that only some 150 moderate opposition fighters are currently receiving training from the U.S. Department of Defense—at a time when ISIL’s forces may number 30,000 
(KurdIShIS)  and President Bashar al-Assad’s army several tens of thousands as well. Meanwhile, ISIL continues to threaten the region and to inspire lone-wolf terrorist attacks around the globe.
Lone Wolf terror attacks? (eyes roll)
What to do? Counterintuitively, at this stage, the only realistic path forward may be a plan that in effect deconstructs Syria. ( Counterintuitively? not different then what I had expected from the NATO global tyranny/ but definitely NOT what seems right/ natural or correct) A comprehensive, national-level solution is too hard even to specify at this stage, much less effect. Instead, the international community should work to create pockets with more viable security and governance within Syria over time. With initial footholds in place, the strategy could develop further in a type of “ink-spot” campaign that eventually sought to join the various local initiatives into a broader and more integrated effort.
 Safe, autonomous zones (aka balkanization always the plan)

This approach builds on current U.S. strategy, but with a much less glaring mismatch between means and ends. Requiring ideological purity of opposition fighters would no longer be quite as high of a bar. Training them in the safety of Turkey, Jordan, and other friendly countries would still be the first step, but not a sufficient one.

The idea would be to help moderate elements establish reliable safe zones within Syria once they were able. American, as well as Saudi and Turkish and British and Jordanian and other Arab forces would act in support, not only from the air but eventually on the ground via special forces. The approach would benefit from Syria’s open desert terrain which could allow creation of buffer zones that could be monitored for possible signs of enemy attack. Western forces themselves would remain in more secure positions in general—within the safe zones but back from the front lines—at least until the reliability of such defenses, and also local allied forces, made it practical to deploy and live in more forward locations.
Creation of these sanctuaries would produce autonomous zones that would never again have to face the prospect of rule by either Assad or ISIL. They would also represent areas where humanitarian relief could be supplied, schools reopened, and larger opposition fighting forces recruited, trained, and based. U.N. agencies and NGOs would help to the extent possible; regardless, relief could certainly be provided far more effectively than is the case today.
The end-game for these zones would not have to be determined in advance. The interim goal might be a confederal Syria, with several highly autonomous zones and a modest (eventual) national government. The confederation would likely require support from an international peacekeeping force, if this arrangement could ever be formalized by accord. But in the short term, the ambitions would be lower—to make these zones defensible and governable, to help provide relief for populations within them, and to train and equip more recruits so that the zones could be stabilized and then gradually expanded.
Changing the approach (no change, other then a public acknowledgment by the US of having a plan)
This plan would differ from current strategy in three main ways. First, the idea would be plainly stated as the avowed goal of the United States. This could reduce disagreements with other sponsors of the insurgency, and many of the insurgents themselves, since American policy would be based on a more realistic squaring of means with ends. It would also help dispel the lurking suspicion that Washington was content to tolerate the Assad government now as the lesser of two evils. Among other benefits, this could reduce frictions in America’s relationships with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and several other key regional countries.
Vetting insurgents will not change- which means KurdIShIS will still be morphing in and out of it's good guy/bad guy drama- "collaboration with extremists will not be a scarlet letter
Second, Syrian insurgents would be vetted on a somewhat different set of criteria. While extremist ideologies would still be seen as disqualifying, past collaboration with extremist elements of the insurgency would not itself be viewed as a scarlet letter—since some of that collaboration could have been a necessary means of surviving on Syria’s complex and challenging battlefield. Third, multilateral support teams, grounded in special forces detachments and air-defense capabilities as needed, would be prepared for deployment into parts of Syria once opposition elements were able to seize and reliably hold strong points.
Safest zones perhaps in the ethnically cleansed by the Kurds areas? Why I could never have seen that coming....Facetious again- Saw that one coming for some time now.
This last part would of course be the most challenging, and the actual deployment of any such teams the most fraught. It need not be rushed. It could be undertaken in the safest zones first—perhaps in Kurdish areas, for example, and then near the Jordanian border in conjunction with Jordanian forces. But it’s a necessary part of the effort. Beginning the planning immediately would not only help prove American seriousness about the overall campaign plan, but also allow for coordination with humanitarian and development groups.
All this talk of humanitarian concern? Except when the Kurds kill people, call in bombing "all clears" and burn villages to displace. There is no concern for humans then. Why?

The plan would be directed not only against ISIL but in part against Assad as well. In a bow to reality, however, it would not explicitly seek to overthrow him, so much as deny him control of territory that he might still aspire to govern again. The autonomous zones would be liberated with the clear understanding that there was no going back to rule by Assad or a successor. In any case, Assad would not be a military target under this concept, but areas he currently controls (and cruelly bombs) would be. And if Assad delayed too long in accepting a deal for exile, he could inevitably face direct dangers to his rule and even his person.
And if Assad doesn't go along with a deal for exile, he will be killed- Wow!

Don’t kick the can

This type of plan may be the only realistic path forward, recognizing battlefield realities, the key interests of various regional actors, and the actual options we have before us. Moreover, while it is not without risks for the United States, the scale of military involvement envisioned is not substantially greater than what we have been doing the last year or so in Afghanistan. President Obama can stay true to his most important pledges—to downsize America’s role in the wars of the Middle East, while doing everything in his power to protect the country from further terrorist attack—with such an approach. He should not view Syria as a problem to hand to his successor, but rather a crisis that demands his attention and a new strategy now.

Past 24 hours: 

Monday, June 29, 2015

Fitch cuts ratings for 4 Greek Banks to 'restricted default'

 Link

Is this an indicator of what's to come?
Anyone?
Another thought? Did Fitch downgrade any other banks? The German banks? 
Italian? Cypriot? 
WASHINGTON: Fitch cut its ratings on four major Greek banks to "restricted default" on Monday after the government ordered commercial banks closed for a week and established capital controls.

Fitch said the capital controls, including restrictions on withdrawals by customers, amounted to a restricted default "because the deposit restrictions affect a material part of the banks' senior obligations."

The four banks hit by the downgrade, which were all already rated as CCC or "highly speculative", were National Bank of Greece, Piraeus Bank, Eurobank Ergasias and Alpha Bank.
The four banks hit by the downgrade, which were all already rated as CCC or "highly speculative", were National Bank of Greece, Piraeus Bank, Eurobank Ergasias and Alpha Bank.

"The ratings reflect exceptionally high levels of credit risk, because of the imposition of capital controls as well as poor recovery prospects in the event of the default on senior debt obligations," Fitch said.

Fitch meanwhile downgraded the banks' "viability ratings" -- which weigh the banks' intrinsic creditworthiness -- to a bottom-level "f" or "fail".

The downgrade "reflects Fitch's view that these banks have failed and would have defaulted had capital controls not been imposed," because the banks are dependent on the European Central Bank for liquidity and the ECB decided on Sunday not to increase that liquidity due to the Greek government's action.

Alexis Tsipras must be stopped- Junckers erratic speech

Europe playing hardball?
Good cop/ bad cop
Is Juncker off his meds? Or is he on too many meds?

Berlin, Paris and Brussels made plain that the 5 July vote will mean either staying in the euro on their tough terms or returning to the drachma.
In what was arguably the biggest speech of his career, the president of the European commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, appeared before a packed press hall in Brussels against a giant backdrop of the Greek and EU flags.
He was impassioned, bitter and disingenuous in appealing to the Greek people to vote yes to the euro and his bailout terms, arguing that he and the creditors – rather than the Syriza government – had the best interests of Greeks at heart.
Tsipras had lied to his people, deceived and betrayed Europe’s negotiators and distorted the bailout terms that were shredded when the negotiations collapsed and the referendum was called, he said.
“I feel betrayed. The Greek people are very close to my heart. I know their hardship … they have to know the truth,” he said.
“I’d like to ask the Greek people to vote yes … no would mean that Greece is saying no to Europe.”
In a country where an estimated 11,000 people have killed themselves during the hardship wrought by austerity, Juncker offered unfortunate advice. “I say to the Greeks, don’t commit suicide because you’re afraid of dying,” he said.
Is Juncker off his rocker? Seriously?
Juncker’s extraordinary performance sounded and looked as if he were already mourning the passing of a Europe to which he has dedicated his long political career. His 45-minute speech was both proprietorial and poignant about his vision, which seems to be giving way to a rawer and rowdier place.
That was clear from the trenchant remarks of Sigmar Gabriel, Germany’s vice-chancellor and the head of the country’s Social Democratic party. He coupled the Greek situation with last week’s foul tempers over immigration and said that Europe faces its worst crisis since the EU’s founding treaty was signed in Rome in 1957.
Gabriel was the first leading European politician to voice what many think and say privately about Tsipras – that the Greek leader represents a threat to the European order, that his radicalism is directed at the politics of mainstream Europe and that he wants to force everyone else to rewrite the rules underpinning the single currency.
The unspoken message was that Tsipras is a dangerous man on a mission who has to be stopped.
Standing alongside his boss, Angela Merkel, as if to send a joint nonpartisan national signal from Germany, Gabriel said that if the Greek people vote no on Sunday, they would be voting “against remaining in the euro”.
Unlike Juncker and Hollande, who pleaded with the Greek people to reject Tsipras’s urging of a no vote, the German leaders sounded calmly resigned to the rupture.
For Merkel, it was clear that the single currency’s rulebook was much more important than Greece. In this colossal battle of wills, Tsipras could not be allowed to prevail.

From earlier:

Jay Dyer on RIR: Charleston, False Flags and Flag Distractions

Jay Dyer on RIR: Charleston, False Flags and Flag Distractions

I haven't touched on the Charleston shooting because I just don't have the time to cover it all.
Wish I did.  No matter though. Jay Dyer does a GREAT job dissecting the incident.
Anthony left a thoughtful comment- First Charlie Hebdo and then Charlies town- Charleston
Via Wiki:
" Historical conjecture indicates that Charleston is named after Col. Clendenin's father, Charles. Charles Town was later shortened to Charleston"
Also- Jay Dyer mentions Dave McGowan's theorizing on how we have been moved from the societal manipulation of the "serial killer" into the societal manipulation of the "mass shooter"
I personally recall the serial killer phenomena- seeing it on the news- sure scared me as a youngster!

What's on my mind at this time?

The serial killer phenomena and the mass shooter tactic intersect with Charles Manson and the Tate/ Labianca murders?  Manson is  wrongly portrayed as a serial killer. But the crime most often associated with him has more in common with a mass shooting. The infamous serial killer of that time was the zodiac killer

Think Helter Skelter & race wars? Think about a non cooperative populace (anti war protests and sentiment) vs the distraction 'hippie' movement alongside the tune in, turn on, drop out LSD push.

Are we looking at any present day parallels? I'm mulling this over in my head.
Are the elites attempting to channel the righteous indignation of humanity into a specific direction?
Thoughts, anyone? 
 


Who took this picture?


Jay Dyer's site: Jay's Analysis  has found a new home in the sidebar here at the blog. I've been listening to Jay's shows for the past few months and he definitely has some interesting ideas, worthy of consideration.
"Jay Dyer is a writer and researcher from the Southern US who obtained his BA in philosophy, while his graduate work focused on the interplay of literary theory, espionage and philosophy. His website, Jay’s Analysis, is dedicated to investigating the deeper themes and messages found in our globalist pseudo culture, illustrating the connections between philosophy, metaphysics, secret societies, Hollywood, psychological warfare and comparative religion. Jay returns to RIR for a special extended segment in which we discuss the June 17, 2015 shooting at Charleston’s Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal (AME) Church, allegedly carried out by the now infamous Dylann “Storm” Roof. Jay provides his analysis of the patterns surrounding this event, which have curious similarities to those of other mass shooting sprees and false flags that have been highlighted in the mainstream media. We discuss many elements that point to stage craft, including the ready-made narrative for a “White Terrorist” rolled out into news coverage, a cartoonish manifesto appearing on cue, and gun control legislation waiting in the wings for approval. We also consider the phenomena of active shooter drill running concurrent with the shooting and telltale signs of crisis actors being used for on-camera interviews. Then, we take a look at the larger context of the “Summer of Rage” being touted by the leftist media and pushed internally by the Obama administration in an effort to ramp up the threat of racial war, switching from that of Islamic terrorism"

"The Summer of Rage" Is that a hashtag or some such garbage? Reads very provocatively.

Anyone ever find out who took all the stone cold stare images of this guy?


Thanks to Henrik at Red Ice for making the entire interview available for all of us.




Jay's article on the Charleston shooting is also must read material. In my opinion.

Charleston Shooting: Evidence of Stagecraft

 

Another stone faced stare- Ready made images for the media?

Saturday, June 27, 2015

Greece: Coup? Political or Military? Will Syriza fall aka be pushed out? UPDATED!

Considering a previous Greek government tried to go the referendum route and the EU ousted him...Will history repeat?

Let's read this article, shall we?

No EU support for Greece may accelerate the fall of SYRIZA government


As the discussion in the Parliament continues and has taken a psychotherapist nature, the Greeks, have emptied all ATMs since early morning hours. It is characteristic enough of the confusion that one of the first ATMs which run out of cash was that of the …Parliament. Furthermore after the run of the ATMs, petrol stations run out of fuel around noon and then the run to the supermarkets started which now is coming to an end as most department stores are already out of pasta, milk and other edibles.
The second Act of the play has taken place in this afternoon in Brussels at the Eurogroup.
The Eurogroup was convoked to discuss the Greek request to extend the support program for a few days. The request was rejected around 06:00 pm CET and the Greek Economy minister Yianis Varoufakis was invited him to leave. After that, the Eurogroup continues its discussion on Greece without the Greeks, bringing as Plan A the Plan B, which provides for the Greek default.
So the Eurogroup invited the minister to leave and continued on the discussion without him?

Under the circumstances the political situation in Greece became highly volatile. It is highly probable that the Greek Parliament will approve the proposal of the Prime Minister for a Referendum by midnight (11:00 pm CET). It is however questionable whether the President of the Republic Prokopis Pavlopoulos will validate the decision to make such decision law of the State. In this case there will be no referendum.
Technically, the president can do it, as the Greek Constitution does not allow any referendum on fiscal matters. The President was one of the closest associates of former Prime Minister Kostas Karamanlis who proposed him for president. As this morning for the first time after a long time of absence, Kostas Karamanlis made a written statement criticizing the government for its attitude; it is likely that the President will not ratify the law of the Referendum.
FLASHBACK!
 Kostas Karamanlis- Investigation of attempted assassination against Kostas Karamanlis
A criminal investigation against unknown perpetrators accused of organizing an assassination of former Greek Prime Minister Kostas Karamanlis has been started by the Athens regional prosecutor's office. It was the result of the months-long criminal investigation in connection with press publications in June 2012.
They cite as a source a document of the Russian secret services addressed to the Greek intelligence service. It mentioned the existence of an organized plan to murder Kostas Karamanlis for the energy policy pursued by his government.
Presently
As the deadline for the IMF payment is approaching (June 30), the Eurogroup decision to proceed with plan B and citizens rapidly loosing confidence on the SYRIZA government (ATM, gas station, supermarkets runs) the political situation may change suddenly and have a fall of the government very shortly.
 " the political situation may change suddenly and have a fall of the government very shortly"
Here is a collection of all analysis presented by New Europe Online on the Greek crisis. (http://www.neurope.eu/knowledge-network/the-greek-crisis/). Same content is permanently exposed in the web site with a link in the top left side of the home page under the title THE GREEK CRISIS.

"The euro area authorities stand ready to do whatever is necessary to ensure financial stability of the euro area"

No matter how it affects the people of Greece?
No matter what the Greek people want?
 I smell tyranny! The stench of fascism is overbearing.  

UPDATE BEGINS-

Is this how the Greek government will fall?  

The Eurogroup is claiming that the Greek Government walked away? Not the claim in the above story? "Greek Economy minister Yianis Varoufakis was invited him to leave" Which version is truth?


‘I will always say that the door is open”, Dijsselbloem said, reminding that it was not the institutions, but Varoufakis who left on his own account before the meeting ended.
“It was not us who said the talks have come to an end in a negative way, it was the Greek government which said what’s on the table now deserves a no”.
“They broke off the talks while there were still going on, while there was still time, and then decided to give a negative advice to their electorate. The only caveat I see is that the Greek parliament has to take a wise position on that and I hope that may lead to a different political situation. But we will have to see,” he said.
Here's where we got to 'bringing Syriza down' via a no confidence vote.

But a high-level source in Athens told EurActiv that "the only way to delay the discussion and the approval of the referendum is the probability that the main opposition leader, Antonis Samaras, would ask for a non-confidence vote towards the government before the discussion on the referendum.”
In the event of a non-confidence vote the government will collapse.
If the confidence vote is not cleared then the discussion for the referendum will just be delayed for three days, the high-level source said.
I hope that Syriza didn't ask for the referendum to give themselves a face saving out?
Or even worse then that.... Did the bankster overlords of EU 'give' Syriza and Tsipras this out?
 And I'm not talking 'give' in a friendly gift giving sort of way either?

Keeping in mind this interesting fact- Greece. As a NATO participant spends 2.5 percent of it's GDP on the military. In the 2010 to 2014 time period
Greece   2.7  2.5  2.4   2.5

Canada 1.2   1.2  1.1   1.0


United States 4.7  4.6  4.2   3.8
Russian Federation 3.9  3.7   4.0  4.2
Interesting?

Don't Miss:

Friday, June 26, 2015

Kurds fighting & killing Kurds/Arabs & Christians.Kobane(i) attack benefits Kurdistan creators

My Kurd/ISIS symbiosis theory keeps validating itself, repeatedly,  by that not so subtle give and take between the two groups.

The attack on Kobane? Kurds killing Kurds and others. Wearing one of  their alternative costumes
    SOHR mouthpiece- “IS militants could infiltrate the city wearing YPG and pro-YPG rebel brigade uniforms,” according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based monitoring group.
ISIS militants disguised as Kurdish fighters infiltrate Syrian town
     "ISIS militants disguised as Kurdish security forces infiltrated Kobani on Thursday"
KurdIShIS changed their costumes to play a different role in this war theatre.  
Easy enough to do when you are one and the same.

The recent attack on Kobani(e) serves the creators and creation of Kurdistan- It does NOT serve Turkey.  Not one bit- The election kerfuffle in Turkey is an issue best served by not antagonizing the Kurdish populace. The rise of the divisive identity politics party in the last Turkish election. The threat of a Kurdish territory being cut out of Turkey - NO BENEFIT to TURKEY to promote the attack on Kobane(i)

* US dismisses accusations against Turkey on Kobani blasts

         John Kirby. "They've (Ankara) denied that there was any complicity in that. I mean, we have no reason not to believe them in that regard.
The US dismisses accusations quite easily because they know it wasn't the Turkish government. They know it was their monstrous KurdIShIS militias

The article below comes as no surprise

Kurds fight Kurds in Syria

 DIYARBAKIR, Turkey — First Kobani, then Tell Abyad. The two Syrian towns along the Turkish border came under the international spotlight amid months long clashes between Kurdish forces and the Islamic State (IS). The People’s Protection Units (YPG) triumphed in both battles, breaking the IS siege of Kobani in January and seizing Tell Abyad earlier this month. Though the two adversaries are poles apart ideologically, they have something in common — their Kurdish fighters. A considerable number of Kurds, most of them from Turkey, have joined the ranks of IS in Syria and Iraq.
 The impoverished province of Bingol, home to some 267,000 people, has emerged as a major IS recruitment base in Turkey’s predominantly Kurdish southeast. Official figures are not available, but locals estimate at least 600 young men have joined the jihadist group, lured through religious indoctrination and various promises, including money and marriage.
The 18-year-old son of a local grocery owner is one of them. The man, who spoke on condition of anonymity and agreed only to a telephone interview, said he was able to speak only once to his son since he vanished earlier this year.
“My son was a quiet boy. He disappeared two months ago. We wouldn’t have even known he was there [Syria] if he hadn’t called us,” the bereft father told Al-Monitor. “I think he was influenced by friends. I’m just waiting, helpless. I just hope he turns up one day.”
Bingol stands out as a strongly conservative region whose population is overwhelmingly Zaza, an ethnic subgroup in the Kurdish fold. It has long been a major electoral reservoir for conservative and Islamist-leaning parties. The region’s social fabric, however, has propped up not only legal political parties but also outlawed Islamist groups.
Militants from Bingol have figured prominently both in the leadership and lower ranks of the Turkish Hezbollah, a Kurdish-dominated Sunni Islamist group with a bloody past. Prominent Hezbollah leader Haci Bayancuk — sentenced to life in 2011 for his role in running the group’s violent campaign in the 1990s — is a native of Bingol. He has been succeeded by his son Halis Bayancuk, known also as Abu Hanzala.
Mehmet Kurt,Bingol University academic who studied radicalization in Turkey’s southeast during his doctoral studies at London’s Queen Mary University, told Al-Monitor that a complex mix of “strong historic and social dynamics” nourish radicalization in Bingol.
Kurt said that the question of whether Zazas are really Kurdish or not — a debate that has intensified in recent years — contributed to an identity crisis among the Zazas, which often resulted in religious affiliation superseding ethnicity. “This is something the state’s rhetoric has also encouraged,” he said.
Are Zazas really Kurdish? How about Yazidis? Are they really Kurdish? Kind of hard to define the Kurds as a 'people' in need of a nation when one can't even properly identify the people?
“The people’s senses of belonging are often confused and broken. Placing religious identity above ethnic identity becomes easier. For (sunni muslim) Kurds, in particular, religious identity prevails over ethnicity. Turkey’s assimilationist policies have also contributed to that,” Kurt said. “A Turk could easily define himself as both Muslim and Turkish. For Kurds, however, being Muslim is often perceived as an obstacle to Kurdishness due to historic dynamics and the state’s assimilationist policies. This is especially true for the Zazas in Bingol. Thus, religious identity often takes precedence over ethnic identity and completely obscures it.”(excuse making)
Kurt believes the number of IS militants from Bingol could be lower than 600, but stresses that a large number of people remain potential recruits. To stem the flow, he said, the government needs to step up security measures in the short term and follow up with long-term measures in the socio-economic realm, including education and job creation, to curb radicalization.
While many in Bingol are reluctant to speak openly about relatives with IS, others, like Filit Batir, are not. A retired employee of the local electricity authority, Batir told Al-Monitor how his son Musa, 19, traveled twice to Syria to join first IS and then al-Qaeda before being killed last year in an unknown location.
Batir believes his son was “deceived” into joining the war in Syria, saying he had sought help from the Turkish authorities to get him back, but to no avail. After a first short stint in Syria in 2013, the young man returned to Turkey, but Batir failed to convince him to stay home. Musa ultimately returned in a coffin.
“Shortly after he first went [to Syria], he suddenly came back one day. He didn’t come home but went to his sister in Ankara. I begged him to come home and he finally acquiesced,” Batir said. “He stayed here several months but they took him back again. And one day I got news he was in the hospital in [the Turkish border province of] Hatay. But when I went there, what I received was his body. I brought him home and buried him in our native village.”
Though Bingol has come under the spotlight, Kurds from other regions and various walks of life have also joined IS. In one striking case, an academic at Diyarbakir’s Dicle University, known as a liberal intellectual, lost his three young sons to IS in March.
Tensions between Islamist and nationalist Kurds escalated in October 2014 when some 50 people were killed on both sides in street clashes that erupted during demonstrations against the siege of Kobani and Ankara’s alleged support for the jihadists.
The polarization is perhaps best illustrated in a story of a Kurdish family in Adana, as reported in the Turkish media. The family’s elder son spent a stint with the Kurdistan Workers Party, which has long fought the Turkish state and is closely affiliated with the YPG in Syria. The younger son, meanwhile, joined IS last year. “We’ll behead the YPG guys,” the younger brother reportedly wrote on social media under a picture of himself brandishing a gun.
An estimated 500 Kurds from Iraqi Kurdistan have also joined IS. Most of them are said to be from the Halabja region, which, like Bingol, is known as a conservative stronghold.
Minimally there are 1000 + Kurds aligned with ISIS. And that's likely a very low number

Hat tip to  the commenter 'Okani' at Syrian Perspective for stating that Kurds had joined ISIS, which caused me to do a bit more digging on this, one of my pet subjects- Lo and Behold I found this VICE article from 2014!
 "But not all Kurds are fighting against the Islamic State. Some have actually joined its ranks, and are now helping the militants' offensive on Kobane with their knowledge of local geography and Kurdish language and culture Kurdish members of the Islamic State, led by a commander known as Abu Khattab al-Kurdi
Some are playing a major role in the battle for the town and against fellow Kurds, the AP reported. Many of them, including al-Kurdi, hail from the town of Halabja, in Iraqi Kurdistan near the Iranian border, but some of the fighters are from Kobane itself, and nearby Syrian towns. "If you go back to the 1990s there have been extremist Kurdish groups even before al Qaeda was known. In the early 2000s they beheaded many PUK peshmergas and they blew up a Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) Eid celebration in Erbil, killing senior KDP members, so they have been active within the Kurdish community."That bombing, in 2004, killed 105 people and Ansar al-Islam, a Salafist militant group, claimed responsibility for the blasts. Al-Kurdi, who is wanted in Iraq, was a member of Ansar al-Islam ;before joining the Islamic State. Mullah Krekar, a Kurdish Sunni and founder of the group, is currently in jail in Norway, where he had sought asylum, on terror charges.
"Our latest information is that [al-Kurdi] is in Syria fighting in the Kobane area. He is an expert in mountainous areas," an Iraqi official told the AP. "He is commanding the Kurdish group within Daesh because he is a Kurd," he added, using the Arabic acronym for the Islamic State.
Before the Islamic State's fast rise to prominence in the region, many Kurdish Islamists joined the ranks of Ansar al-Islam, which during the Iraq war fought against US troops and the Iraqi military. But as the group was weakened and the conflict in neighboring Syria deepened, many fighters joined Islamist groups there, including ISIS, which declared itself the Islamic State in June.
 The ranks of Ansar al Islam? Well that takes us back to some previous posts I've done on the creation of ISIS from the ashes of the US led attack on Iraq- Unsurprisingly the Kurds were embedded from the beginning.....





DON'T MISS!

 

Thursday, June 25, 2015

Dave McGowan- In His Own Words

I am sending Meria Heller a big Thank YOU for making this interview freely available to all of us.

Hi Meria- from Canada!

As mentioned previously, I've listened to Dave gab with Meria for many years now- So, I'm not surprised that he would speak publicly about his circumstances, very candidly, with Meria
Her show & audience would provide Dave a comfortable place to speak from.

Scroll down for the link and listen for yourself-
Despite the circumstances he is looking to the future- Which is good! Very good!


 

 

Dave McGowan-In His Own Words

6/25/15 Dave McGowan talks about his cancer and treatment first person. Take a listen and choose to
subscribe today!
LISTEN NOW

Don't Miss from earlier today 

An interview that intersects with Dave McGowan's Laurel Canyon work

Very Interesting Interview! Music, Mind Control & Psychobiology Pt 1

 

Very Interesting Interview! Music, Mind Control & Psychobiology Pt 1

Extremely interesting interview. Lots to contemplate. I've listened twice already!

Hat tip to Jan @ Gnostic Media for providing us all this great interview.
"He holds a Doctorate degree in Ethnomusicology from The Ohio State University. He has taught at the Ohio State University, Capital University and the Indira Ghandi National Open University. He is the author of Trance, Ritual and Rhythm (2010), and has three books currently in press.
He lectures frequently around the world on various topics including Sufism, Indian music and Music & culture of Central Asia. Hans has been imparting music lessons (both in person and online), master class/workshop/lecturer demonstrations in North Indian classical sitar & guitar, and Western jazz & blues in guitar around the world.
Currently, he works as a professional musician, composer and producer. He is a Teaching Artist/Artist in Residence, Ohio Arts Council, USA and Research fellow for the Advancing Interdisciplinary Research in Singing (AIRS) project, University of Prince Edward Island, Canada"
Audio version:

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Fighting ISIS Terrorism? Saving Syria? US Airstrikes Advance Kurdish State Creation

Let's look at some interesting facts, shall we?

US-led airstrikes over Syria have helped the Kurds advance to connect their cantons/regions

Keep in mind the vast numbers of dislocated Syrians the western governments and media cry crocodile tears over

Kurds flash the victory sign in Sanliurfa, Turkey on 12 November 2014
"Ain Issa has come under our full control, along with dozens of villages in the surrounding area," YPG spokesman Redur Khalil told AFP.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based monitor, said IS had withdrawn from the town and YPG and rebel forces were now checking for mines laid by IS.

ISIS has withdrawn, again! From yet another town! Gosh that is so dam lucky for the Kurdish fighters! After ISIS has forced residents out of the town... They withdraw. And the Kurds step in?
Wash, Rinse, Repeat.
Pentagon data on US-led coalition airstrikes in the country shows that of the nearly 1,800 strikes launched in Syria since last year, at least 1,200 have supported Kurdish forces.
 However, the Kurdish advance has stirred controversy with allegations of ethnic cleansing of Arab and Turkmen villages surfacing in recent weeks.
The US has never officially said that it supports the YPG, with any outright backing likely to anger coalition partner and NATO member Turkey.
The People Protection Units, known as the YPG, are the military wing of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party, the main Syrian Kurdish force. The party is seen as an extension of the Turkish Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK) which is seen as a terrorist organisation in Turkey and many Western countries, although there have been growing attempts in Europe to have the terror label removed.
After the predominantly Kurdish town was recaptured from IS, the coalition conducted more than 300 airstrikes around the town, ramping up the total number of airstrikes on Kobane to 943 since October.
Another Kurdish-controlled area where the coalition has conducted more than 250 airstrikes was the self-declared Jazirah Canton in northeastern Syria.
As Kurdish rebels moved west to connect their forces in the self-declared Jazirah and Kobani cantons the coalition has followed with intensive air support, a report by AA alleges.
The coalition has conducted 244 airstrikes on al-Hasakeh and Tel Abyad with more than half of the strikes carried out in the last three months. 
 The number of airstrikes in Northern Syria speak aloud the agenda-

 Kurdish analyst Civiroglu also said any offensive against Raqqa would require lengthy planning and additional weapons for the YPG and its allies, who would opt to consolidate their hold on Tal Abyad and surrounding areas.

Additional weapons for Kurdistan?
Why didn't the Neocon Krauthammer suggest that in his op ed just last week?

"In Mesopotamia, Balkanization...." Krauthammer loves Kurds & War

"begin supplying the Iraqi Kurds in a direct, 24-hour, Berlin-style airlift. And in Syria, intensify our training, equipping and air support for the now-developing Kurdish safe zone.
Yes. He did!

The goal?
 Our objective right now is to defeat the Islamic State and to ensure the fall of the Assad regime. That does not require an American invasion. It does require recognizing reality and massively supporting our few genuine allies on the ground.

Earlier today as Greece and EU at loggerheads, still:

Mulling Alternative to the Euro in Greece- Guero?

Mulling Alternative to the Euro in Greece- Geuro?

More on Greece: The Geuro? Still looks to be a private central banker currency issued as debt.

However there are some non central bank, non debt based currencies mentioned and the author plays down their worth, their ability to work and the economic contribution they make- I will highlight that section.

 Towards the end of June, Greece is due to pay back a hefty sum to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Right now, the cash-strapped nation would not be in a position financially to do so. At the same time, the lender is holding back a bailout tranche of 7.2 billion euros ($8.1 billion) as it is not satisfied with Athens' reform concessions. 
It is thus hardly surprising that experts have been debating the introduction of a parallel currency in the country (links to an article from 2015) for quite some time. It would put the government in a position to pay out wages for its civil servants without Greece having to leave the eurozone. That currency would be a kind of IOU which could also be used to make other transactions.

A chief economist at Deutsche Bank, Thomas Mayer, came up with a name for such a parallel currency three years ago. He said it should be called the Geuro, for Greek euro. Cypriot-British economist and Nobel laureate Christopher Pissaridis has also endorsed a parallel currency in the event that the state can no longer pay wages and pensions.

Central banks keep mum

But when asked about plans for a parallel currency in the drawers of the Bank of Greece, the ECB or Germany's Bundesbank, monetary pundits there remain tight-lipped.

Please understand that we do not want to make any statements on a parallel currency scenario," the German central bank told DW. The Bank of Greece also refused to comment on any such speculation.

The central banks' reluctance to speak out on this topic is understandable. For them, the euro is the only legal tender in the bloc. Debates about alternatives tend to be viewed as debates about the possible end of the currency union in its present form.

On the other side, parallel currencies have been introduced in a number of places, but their impact was limited regionally. Take the Chiemgauer, for instance, a regional currency in southern Germany that was called into being by a Walforf school back in 2003.

Get cracking immediately
In principle, not much is needed to introduce a parallel currency, says Frank Jansky, a lawyer and executive with Regiogold, an umbrella organization dealing with parallel currencies.

"You need a handful of companies, which would accept a parallel currency alongside the euro, and you need consumers, who are likewise willing to use that alternative regional method of payment," he said.
The supporting association behind the Chiemgauer regional currency has meanwhile boosted its membership to 6,000, including 600 firms and 250 public charities from the region around Lake Chiemsee in southern Germany. That currency is available both as paper money and in digital form. Chimeguer money can be exchanged for euros at a rate of 1:1, but if people want to convert Chiemgauer money back to euros, they have to put up with a 5 percent fee.
Here is where we get to non debt based currency:
Other regional currencies cannot be converted into euros at all. Their value is based exclusively on the consent from companies to accept the money in exchange for goods and services. In Switzerland, a parallel currency called WIR has a particularly long tradition. It has been around for 80 years and has been accepted by 45,000 small and medium-sized companies.
 All money exchanged is based on consent to accept.  Private banker debt money or other forms. All money exchanged is based on consent and acceptance. The WIR seems to enjoy broad faith and consent to use. The private bankers who monopolize the money want you to believe their money is superior to a form of money like the WIR, but,  it isn't. Private central debt based banking is merely a monopoly business model & nothing more.

Regional value creation chain

All those currencies aim to boost regional economies. On Regiogeld's website, a video explains just how this works in practice. If, say, a baker sells his rolls for euros, he can buy flour and other ingredients from the whole of the currency union.
"But if regional money changes hands, the same baker would be in a position to rethink his supply chain," says IT business engineer Norbert Rost. He could look for a miller in the same region who accepts the aternative currency.

That miller in turn would then try and buy products from regional suppliers. "He'd possibly get his crop from regional farmers or energy from regional power suppliers."
 Added values would thus stay in the region. Regiogeld is of interest to structurally weak economic areas suffering under fierce international competition.
Added value stays in the region- Hmmm... not exactly a bonus for the globalist bankster control crowd.
Regiogeld executive Jansky argues a parallel currency would also be helpful for Greece.

"And not only for Greece, but for other regions in Europe as well," Janksy said. "It could be helpful wherever the introduction of the euro has led to a distortion of the real economy as not all members of the bloc are on an equal footing economically."
 Not desired by policymakers

"Money creation as a result of civic initiatives instead of action by central banks, commitment to regional development instead of globalization, doing without interest payments"- "you could argue that regional currencies boil down to a partial democratization of our monetary system," Jansky said. "But compared with the euro, those currencies do not really have a tangible economic impact"
Jansky is full of baloney! While he acknowledges that civic money, as opposed to central bank control- money for debt- does INDEED boil down to a "partial democratization" of the monetary system he further speaks as if that's of no benefit. He then claims these regional currencies have no tangible economic impact!?  I laugh and repeat-  The WIR in Switzerland has been around for 80 years and is used "by 45,000 small and medium-sized companies" 

Is there really no tangible economic value in that situation?

Also, it would not be easy to spread such a currency to a whole nation. The problem is that even within Greece regions have not developed homogeneously. Apart from that, regional currencies would solve the Greek government's fnancing plight. Athens would have to introduce a national parallel currency to be able to pay wages and pensions.
A single parallel currency does not have to spread to every region. There could easily be more then one parallel currency- Private central banker 'think' is limited by their own agenda of profit taking , misery making and monopolization. Mine isn't
And it coud not fall back on old drachma bills and coins. "Almost all of those were destroyed when the euro was introduced," a Bank of Greece spokesman told DW.

Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Greece- Whichever Outcome The Result Will Be A Contagion

Marketwatch Oped

1. There will be no quick and easy end to the Greek affair. Unstable disequilibria can last a long time. For four centuries, Greece was part of the Ottoman Empire. Tonight’s unhappy meeting of eurozone leaders will not be the last time they gather to consider an intractable imbroglio.

2. Greece holds a lot of the cards. No doubt some kind of deal will be done to prevent — for the moment at least — full-scale ejection from the euro EURUSD, -1.5343%  bloc.

As I wrote four months ago, the single currency’s most troublesome state will remain inside the euro as long as Greek nuisance value (GNV), both political and economic, is held to be lower inside the system (I) than it would be outside (O). For the time being, GNV-I is — just — less than GNV-O. All sorts of Greek maneuvering — whether talks with President Vladimir Putin or speculation about a Greek exit bringing down the euro “house of cards” — are useful ploys to stoke up European fears of GNV-O.

3. The funds that are now leaving Greek banks to the tune of €1 billion a day, whether being taken abroad or simply kept under the mattress, are all effectively liabilities of the European Central Bank, to be paid ultimately (if things go wrong) by European taxpayers. The ECB, as an unelected body run by technocrats, cannot by itself pull the plug on Greece and declare the banks insolvent. The Greek government has no great wish to bring in exchange controls (although soon it may be forced to) since withdrawn euros represent a negotiating tool against its creditors and a store of value that many Greeks can use to hedge against a return of the drachma.

4. The International Monetary Fund is unlikely to get its money back on time. An internal IMF assessment two years ago ruled that the Fund’s exceptional loan to Greece in 2010 was made on far-too-optimistic assumptions about the country’s debt sustainability and ability to carry out adjustment, breaching the IMF’s own rules. U.S. taxpayers will lose money. So please forget any idea that Congress will agree on IMF governance and voting reforms any time in the next few years.

5. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, will be a big loser. The pressure is on her to hold the euro area together and maintain Germany’s European credentials without damaging the pocketbooks of German taxpayers and turning the euro into an overt transfer union. This is an impossible task. Her biggest adversaries are likely to be within her own coalition with the Social Democratic Party, which, however unfairly, will publicly blame her for any unsavory outcome. Shaming Merkel over Greek debt may be unscrupulous, but if it delivers the SPD a chance of winning the 2017 election, then the party will seize it.

6. Karl Otto Pöhl, the former Bundesbank president who died in December, was right when he said, a few days after the May 2010 bailout, that it was decided to save (roughly in that order) rich Greeks, and French and German banks. The Bundesbank’s qualms over the ECB’s purchases of the bonds of Greece and other peripheral countries, publicly though impotently voiced at the time, were never likely to derail the action. But we will hear more of them now that taxpayers in Germany and other creditor countries start to weigh up the bill.

7. Yanis Varoufakis, the much-criticized Greek finance minister, has played a weak hand with complete disregard for the rules of the game, but with breathtaking audacity and some skill. From serial debtors, creditor countries expect grovelling not gravitas. Varoufakis, then an academic, opposed the 2010 bailout, and declared his country insolvent the moment he took office in January. The end of the Greek battle will be melancholy for everyone, and Varoufakis has made plenty of enemies. But, by refusing to sue for a creditors’ peace, he may be judged as ending on the winning side.
AND MOST IMPORTANTLY!
8. Whatever happens will end in contagion. If a deal is struck (as is likely) that gives Greece significant debt relief, that will further weaken the finances of debtor nations like Italy and Spain that are also among leading Greek creditors. If the creditors force further pain on Greece, its inability to pay and its capacity for further wrangling will continue. If Greece does eventually have to leave the euro, then — irrespective of whether it does well or badly outside — we would see the faltering of a system that was supposedly irrevocable and impregnable. Further absconsions, over time, would be inevitable. This is the most important reason why, for the time being, Greece will probably remain within the walls.

Agree or disagree and why?

Don't Miss:

Wounded "Syrian" Killed as Druze Attack Israeli Ambulance


Wounded "Syrian" Killed as Druze Attack Israeli Ambulance

This is an interesting little news item.
Just the other day we had the msm and Israeli news spinning their humanitarian intervention to "save the Druze" Obviously Israel has another agenda.

Recall? Israel's "humanitarian" play- Saving the Druze from Israel's own Islamic Terrorists
Recall?   Israeli Minister calls on World to Recognize Golan Annexation

" During Syria’s civil war Israel’s military has given some discreet tactical support to anti-Assad rebels, according to members of a UN disengagement force in the Golan and local Druze"
The support has been OVERT, not discreet. And this tells us exactly why the Druze attacked the Israeli ambulance carrying an alleged Syrian.



The latest

Jerusalem---A wounded Syrian was killed on Monday when Israeli Druze attacked an Israeli military ambulance carrying him to hospital for treatment, police said.

"A crowd attacked an ambulance with stones near Majdal Shams on the Golan Heights," that was transporting two wounded Syrians, a police statement said, adding that one of the injured "died after the attack".
 If you are not up to speed, I'll explain. Israel has been and continues to support terrorists as they ethnically cleanse, the Druze in this case, enabling Israel to steal more land in Golan Heights while reducing the numbers of people, alive, that Israel will have to contend with when they begin their latest expansionary occupation- 

Nutshell summary on that particular situation

UPDATED!- Cause it was obvious Israel's Islamists, that have been killing Druze, were being transported via ambulance

  A mob of Druze attacked an Israeli ambulance in the Golan Heights that was transporting wounded rebels from Syria, killing one and seriously injuring another.

The incident took place overnight near the Druze village of Majdal Shams, on the Israeli-controlled side of the Heights.

The residents pelted the white military ambulance with stones, broke the windshield and dragged the two Syrian outside, where they were beaten, Israeli police spokesman Micky Rosenfeld said Tuesday.

Israeli daily Haaretz referred to the victims as "rebels".
Two Israeli soldiers driving the ambulance were lightly injured.

A similar incident earlier Monday saw Druze civilians attack another Israeli army medical vehicle, blocking it with private cars and hurling stones at it. One villager was injured as the driver of the vehicle sped away.

Many Druze in Israel support the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, where the Druze are the third-largest religious minority and are considered as heretics by jihadists.
At least 20 Druze were shot dead last week by the al-Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front in the north-western province of Idlib.
AQ/Al Nusra- Israel's rebels

It was the deadliest attack on Druze civilians since the beginning of Syria's conflict four years ago.
Simultaneously we see this going on in Syria's north as US airstrikes & Kurdish boots on the ground ethnically cleanse non acceptable/compliant/Kurdish/Arabic/Christian Syrian citizens.

 

 

Monday, June 22, 2015

Greece: No deal! Fund Managers expect Default. Haircuts?

It looks as if there is no deal. And there was never a  deal in place that should have, realistically or rationally, caused  the stock market to rise today. That is, if the stock market was anything but a rigged casino game? Yes, the house always wins! In fact it is unlikely there will be any deal before the end of this month! So another 8 days to go.

So here are two news items:

Most fund managers expect a Greek default

Most major fund managers (57 percent) expect a credit event from Greece, whether the country stays in the eurozone or is forced to exit, according to a survey conducted earlier this month by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

From the poll of 207 foreign fund managers, who manage a combined total of $562 billion, 42 percent expect a default by Greece but not a eurozone exit, while 15 percent foresee a Greek departure from the common currency. The remaining 43 percent believe there will be a bloodless solution to the crisis.

Notably, the poll was conducted during the first 10 days of June, before the crisis between Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s government and the country’s creditors reached last week’s severe levels, a fact which suggests the percentage of those expecting a credit event would be even higher now.

Few institutional investors have positioned themselves against the worst-case scenario for Greece. However, they have been selling stock internationally, reducing the risk in their investments andraising cash over the course of the last four weeks, according to the managing director and chief investment strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch, Michael Hartnett. Particularly in Europe, cash retained in the portfolios of institutional investors has reached its highest point since the height of the European crisis in March 2009.

Agreement more likely than previously

Monday’s emergency eurozone summit could mark a significant, but not the final, attempt to strike a deal to avert a financial crisis in Greece before the deadline at the end of June. The hardening of the government’s and the lenders’ positions is not a good omen but a deal is still possible, as Chancellor Angela Merkel said. The reaction of the markets and especially the actions of the European Central Bank could play an important role in the outcome of the negotiations.

On February 4, the ECB decided to remove the waiver that allowed the securities issued or guaranteed by the Greek government to be eligible collateral for its refinancing operations despite their speculative grade rating by international credit rating agencies. The reason was that the governing council of the ECB thought the prospects for a quick conclusion of the fifth review of the Greek program were not good.
It was an important move because it forced local banks to get funding from the more expensive emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) mechanism of the Bank of Greece. It also left them with a stigma since banks access ELA loans when there is distress. Of course banks continued to be funded via the ECB refinancing facilities by providing high-quality collateral, that is, EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility) bonds. It is estimated they got about 38 billion euros from the ECB directly. However, the rest of the money, which is a bigger amount, exceeding 80 billion euros, is coming from ELA.

Asked about Greece, the president of the ECB, Mario Draghi, recently said the European Central Bank is a rule-based institution and will act accordingly. Since the country is in a program, the ECB takes it into account when looking at the local banks. It is known that last February’s decision was linked to the standing of the adjustment program. In other words, the decision was taken because it was deemed at the time that the program was getting off track. So, the course of the negotiations and most importantly the outcome of tonight’s summit will likely influence the decision of the ECB.

Tough statements made by high-level EU officials over the last few days have heightened tensions, along with defiant statements by Greek government officials, making many people wonder what is next. It is generally agreed that the lack of progress will make the prospect of an agreement before June 30 very unlikely. In contrast, a deal or significant progress will calm things down, reduce uncertainty and convince the ECB to keep providing liquidity to Greek banks until the end of the month at least.

There is no doubt the acceleration in deposit outflows and the provision of extra ELA to Greek banks by the ECB on Friday have increased concerns. It also explains why talk of capital controls has returned although the authorities dismiss it. Analysts predict the ECB will continue to provide the necessary liquidity to the Greek banking system as long as the prospect of a deal is likely. The ECB reportedly raised the limit on ELA liquidity by an additional 1.8 billion euros on Friday, following a 1.1-billion-euro increase midweek. Assuming the latest figure is correct, since there is no official information, the ELA limit stands at 85.9 billion euros. It could increase further on Monday, if the ECB acts again, depending on the behavior of Greek depositors.

Draghi has said the ECB will continue to authorize ELA funding as long as the Greek banks are solvent and they have available, eligible collateral. It is estimated that the available collateral amounts to 30-33 billion euros but a haircut by the ECB could shave or even eliminate it so banks would not be able to get more loans via ELA, leading to limits on cash withdrawals and international transfers if deposit outflows continue. It should be noted the government has ruled out legislating the imposition of capital controls.

So, it is important that progress is made tonight, so the ECB stays on board and does not have to apply its risk-based approach to the eligibility of Greek collateral. If there is no progress at the emergency summit, the ECB may decide to apply a haircut. This may be manageable for Greek banks at first but difficult to handle as time passes and deposits continue to flee, or the ECB proceeds with an even bigger one later as risks go up.

This is clear to all sides and especially the government, which has been under more pressure lately as the deposit outflows accelerated. Bear in mind that last time Greece faced the prospect of capital controls, back in February, there was a Eurogroup agreement. A number of pundits think this could be repeated again this time, and therefore expect a compromise. This is in accordance with high-level government sources saying in private for some time that they expected a last-minute deal.

If one combines the possibility of capital controls, which everybody wishes away, with their belief in a last-minute agreement deal, one should conclude an agreement is more likely now than before. Of course government officials have claimed a deal was about to be struck before and it never happened, so one should be justifiably cautious. However, this time may be different since time is up.
Greece should just leave the Eurozone, default and start afresh.  As should Italy. Spain. Portugal. Hell Ireland should tell the Euro to shove off too.
Worry about your own house, I say!

From earlier today-

"In Mesopotamia, Balkanization...." Krauthammer loves Kurds & War